Israel security expert: Obama’s policies “worry me a great deal”

The Iran theories
Nov. 16, 2008

Talk to Israelis about the effect of an Obama presidency for Israel and they'll tell you there are many theories.

The first is that Israel is preparing to attack before prez-elect Obama legally ascends to office. After all, why else is the outgoing (not in the extrovert sense) Prime Minister Ehud Olmert going to visit the lame-duck President GWB? Not to say shalom, presumably. Both leaders, going out with low approval ratings, would benefit from a boost by some James-Bond move to enhance their ratings.

I know I said 'many theories,' but no one ever gets past the one, almost as if it is a foregone conclusion. I don't know if there are any other theories actually. I guess it sounds more educated to say 'several' but then stop at the only actual one. 'The one' (not to be confused with Barack Obama himself) is discussed ad infinitum.

Israeli security experts say that with Obama at the helm of American politics, the Jewish state faces a grave situation with a nuclear Iran. Director of the Global Research in International Affairs Center Barry Rubin said he is worried about Obama’s stated intention that he will “conciliate" with his enemies means he will drop his friends.

"That worries me a great deal,” Rubin said, adding that Obama's stance on Iran is an “extremely serious strategic challenge which affects 20 countries or more.”

“We have every reason to believe that (Obama) will take a relatively soft approach whether or not he holds direct negotiations or indirect negotiations” Iran, he said. “We cannot expect that he will take a tougher line on sanctions and pressures and that he will not persuade Tehran that he’s going to do so. This will have a predictable affect that the Iranians are going to push ahead on nuclear weapons as fast as they have with much less concern over consequences.”

Indeed, while Israeli leaders expressed congratulations and optimism regarding Obama in the press, security sources say behind the scenes there was a bit more concern as to the ramifications of his conciliation with Iran.

Even Foreign Minsiter Tzipi Livni publicly intoned dissonance with Obama’s readiness to talk to Iran, which would be perceived in the Middle East as a sign of weakness, she said.

“We live in a neighborhood in which sometimes dialogue--in a situation where you have brought sanctions, and you then shift to dialogue-- is liable to be interpreted as weakness,” Livni said. Asked if she supported US dialogue with Iran, Livni replied: “The answer is no.”

Most Israelis, and Palestinians for that matter, say that the Palestinian-Israeli situation is not likely to be affected by any American president. However, just today a news report quoted the prez-elect as favoring the 1967 borders in a peace agreement. The ‘67 borders essentially push Israel out of the Old City and leaves Jewish institutions like Hebrew University and Hadassah Hospital on the Palestinian side. It also cuts off families from each other plus brings West Jerusalem to the front line of rockets and snipers. This certainly doesn’t make him more left-wing than Israeli leaders. Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and President Shimon Peres already added their support to it as well. THis stems from the "Saudi initiative."

At the UN last week, Peres lauded the idea and was applauded when he told King Abdullah “I wish that your voice will become the prevailing voice of the whole region, of all people.”